基于CT影像学及临床特征构建预测恶性孤立性肺结节预后的列线图模型
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安远县人民医院

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赣州市科技计划项目(编号:GZ2023ZSF383);


Construction of a nomogram model for predicting the prognosis of malignant solitary pulmonary nodules based on CT imaging and clinical features#
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    摘要:

    目的:分析影响恶性孤立性肺结节(SPN)患者预后的相关因素并基于电子计算机断层扫描(CT)影像学及临床特征构建列线图模型。方法:将2022年7月至2024年6月江西赣州市安远县人民医院收治的经影像学诊断为恶性SPN的60例患者纳为研究对象,至少随访6个月后,根据患者有无复发、恶化及生存情况分预后良好组及预后不良组。比较两组相关临床资料。以单因素分析初步筛出影响恶性SPN患者预后的相关因素后进一步采用多因素Logistic分析验证,并基于筛出的独立危险因素构建恶性SPN患者预后不良的列线图预测模型。采用受试者工作特征曲线评估该模型预测恶性SPN患者预后不良的准确性并做出校准曲线评估其一致性。结果:60例患者中共有15例患者出现预后不良,发生率为25.00%。Logistic分析结果显示,年龄较大、血管集束征、胸膜凹陷征、分叶征、毛刺征及结节最大直径为恶性SPN患者发生预后不良的独立危险因素;列线图模型预测恶性SPN患者预后不良的曲线下面积为0.769(95%CI为0.641~0.897);Hosmer-Lemeshow拟合优度检验结果证实该模型的校准度较为理想(χ2=8.340,P =0.214);校准曲线分析进一步表明,该模型的预测概率与实际结局之间一致性较好,平均绝对值误差为0.031。结论:本研究基于年龄、毛刺征、分叶征、胸膜凹陷征及血管集束征等影响因素建立了恶性SPN患者预后不良的风险预测模型,且经验证,该模型的预测效能及判别效度均较好。

    Abstract:

    Objective: To analyze the prognostic factors of patients with malignant solitary pulmonary nodules (SPN) and to construct a nomographic model based on CT imaging and clinical features. Methods: Sixty patients diagnosed as malignant SPN by imaging were enrolled in the study from July 2022 to June 2024 in Anyuan County People"s Hospital of Ganzhou City, Jiangxi Province. After at least 6 months of follow-up, the patients were divided into good prognosis group and poor prognosis group according to recurrence, deterioration and survival. Clinical data of the two groups were compared. The correlation factors influencing the prognosis of malignant SPN patients were screened out by univariate analysis, and then verified by multivariate Logistic analysis. Based on the screened independent risk factors, a nomogram prediction model for poor prognosis of malignant SPN patients was constructed. Receiver operating characteristic curves were used to evaluate the accuracy of the model in predicting poor prognosis in patients with malignant SPN and calibration curves were made to evaluate its consistency. Results: Among 60 patients, 15 patients had poor prognosis, the incidence was 25.00%. Logistic analysis showed that age, vascular convergence, pleural depression, lobulation, spiculation and maximum diameter of nodules were independent risk factors for poor prognosis of malignant SPN patients, and the area under the curve of nomogram model for predicting poor prognosis of malignant SPN patients was 0.769. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test confirmed that the calibration of the model was ideal (χ2=8.340, P =0.214). The calibration curve analysis further showed that the prediction probability of the model was consistent with the actual outcome, and the mean absolute error was 0.031. Conclusion: A predictive model for poor prognosis in patients with malignant SPN was established based on age, spiculation, lobulation, pleural indentation and vascular convergence. The predictive power and discriminant validity of the model were good.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-04-07
  • 最后修改日期:2025-05-22
  • 录用日期:2025-05-26
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