基于炎症-血糖水平构建中老年T2DM合并肌少症的风险预测模型
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天津市北辰医院全科医学科

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To construct a risk prediction model for sarcopenia in middle-aged and elderly patients with T2DM based on inflammation-blood glucose levels
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    摘要:

    目的:基于炎症-血糖水平构建中老年2型糖尿病(T2DM)患者合并肌少症的风险预测模型。方法:选取天津市北辰医院收治的中老年T2DM患者313例进行回顾性研究,时间范围2023年6月~2025年6月。根据是否合并肌少症分成肌少症组、非肌少症组,比较两组炎症指标、血糖指标及其他资料,通过多因素Logistic回归分析中老年T2DM患者肌少症发生的影响因素。根据多因素分析构建列线图模型,对模型效能进行验证。结果:在313例患者中,47例发生肌少症,肌少症发生率为15.02%(47/313)。体质指数(OR=0.568,95%CI=0.339-0.951)、HbA1c(OR=2.794,95%CI=1.251-6.242)、IL-6(OR=1.698,95%CI=1.176-2.450)、NLR(OR=2.807,95%CI=1.453-5.423)是中老年T2DM患者肌少症发生的影响因素(P<0.05)。校准曲线示模型拟合度高,决策曲线示模型有正向净获益。受试者工作特征(Receiver operating characteristic,ROC)曲线显示模型预测中老年T2DM患者肌少症发生的曲线下面积(Area under curve,AUC)为0.967,敏感度87.23%,特异度93.61%。Hosmer-Lemeshow(H-L)拟合优度检验示模型拟合度好(χ2=1.621,P=0.982)。结论:基于炎症-血糖水平构建风险预测模型,对中老年T2DM患者肌少症发生风险具有良好预测作用,敏感度、特异度均较高。

    Abstract:

    Objective: To construct and validate a risk prediction model for sarcopenia in middle-aged and elderly patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) based on inflammation-blood glucose levels. Methods: A retrospective study was conducted on 186 middle-aged and elderly patients with T2DM admitted to Tianjin Beichen hospital from June 2023 to June 2025. Based on the presence or absence of sarcopenia, the patients were categorized into two groups: the sarcopenia group and the non-sarcopenia group.The inflammatory indexes, blood glucose indexes and other data were compared between the two groups. Multivariate Logistic regression was used to analyze the influencing factors of sarcopenia in middle-aged and elderly patients with T2DM. According to the multivariate analysis, a nomogram model was constructed to verify the efficacy of the model. Results: Among 313 patients, 47 (15.02%, 47/313) developed sarcopenia. Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that body mass index (OR=0.568, 95%CI=0.339-0.951), HbA1c (OR=2.794, 95%CI=1.251-6.242), IL-6 (OR=1.698, 95%CI=0.339-0.951), and NLR (OR=2.807, 95%CI=1.453-5.423) were the influencing factors for sarcopenia in middle-aged and elderly patients with T2DM (P < 0.05). The calibration curve showed that the model had a good fit, and the decision curve showed that the model had a positive net benefit. The Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve showed that the Area under curve (AUC) of the model for predicting sarcopenia in middle-aged and elderly patients with T2DM was 0.967, and the sensitivity was 87.23%. The specificity was 93.61%. The Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L) goodness of fit test showed that the model had a good fit (χ2=1.621, P=0.982). Conclusion: The inflammation-blood glucose level based risk prediction model has a good predictive effect on the risk of sarcopenia in middle-aged and elderly patients with T2DM, with high sensitivity and specificity.

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杨梅丽.基于炎症-血糖水平构建中老年T2DM合并肌少症的风险预测模型[J].四川生理科学杂志,2026,48(8):

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  • 收稿日期:2025-10-30
  • 最后修改日期:2025-12-25
  • 录用日期:2026-01-13
  • 在线发布日期: 2026-08-15
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