溃疡性结肠炎患者并发轻度异型增生的影响因素及风险预测模型构建与预测效能研究
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信阳市中心医院

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Research on the influencing factors and risk prediction model construction and predictive efficacy of mild dysplasia in patients with ulcerative colitis
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    摘要:

    目的:探讨溃疡性结肠炎患者并发轻度异型增生的影响因素,并构建列线图模型。方法:回顾性收集2020年9月至2023年9月期间本院收治的315例溃疡性结肠炎患者作为研究对象。依据患者轻度异型增生的发生情况,将患者分为发生轻度异型增生组和未发生轻度异型增生组。收集并对比两组的基线资料。采用Logistic回归分析影响溃疡性结肠炎患者并发轻度异型增生的因素。根据Logistic回归分析结果,利用R软件构建列线图风险预测模型,并绘制受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线评估列线图预测模型的预测效能。结果:315例溃疡性结肠炎患者中,出现轻度异型增生的患者有41例,未出现轻度异型增生的患者有274例。发生轻度异型增生组的年龄、体质量指数、病程、血清白蛋白、血红蛋白水平、性别、药物治疗情况、结直肠癌家族史、吸烟史、饮酒史、糖尿病、高血压与未发生轻度异型增生组均无显著差异(P>0.05);发生轻度异型增生组的血清降钙素原水平、病变部位、疾病活动程度、伴原发性硬化性胆管炎与未发生轻度异型增生组比较均有显著差异(P<0.05)。经Logistic回归分析,结果显示,血清降钙素原水平高、病变部位为全结肠、疾病活动程度为重度、伴原发性硬化性胆管炎是溃疡性结肠炎患者并发轻度异型增生的危险因素(OR均>1,P均<0.05)。构建溃疡性结肠炎患者并发轻度异型增生的列线图预测模型,采用Bootstrap内部验证法验证模型的区分度,C-index=0.943,说明该模型具有良好的区分度;绘制标准曲线,校准曲线和Y-X直线相近,说明模型准确度良好。绘制ROC曲线对溃疡性结肠炎患者并发轻度异型增生的列线图风险预测模型进行验证,AUC为0.943,95%CI为:0.912-0.974,P<0.001,说明该风险预测模型具有良好预测效能。结论:溃疡性结肠炎患者并发轻度异型增生的影响因素为血清降钙素原水平、病变部位、疾病活动程度、伴原发性硬化性胆管炎,基于以上因素构建的溃疡性结肠炎患者并发轻度异型增生的风险预测模型具有一定的预测价值。

    Abstract:

    Objective: To explore the influencing factors of mild dysplasia in patients with ulcerative colitis and to construct a nomogram model. Methods: The clinical data of 315 patients with ulcerative colitis admitted to our hospital from September 2020 to September 2023 were retrospectively collected. According to the occurrence of mild dysplasia in the patients, they were divided into the group with mild dysplasia and the group without mild dysplasia. Collect and compare the baseline data of the two groups. Logistic regression analysis was used to analyze the factors influencing mild dysplasia in patients with ulcerative colitis. Based on the results of Logistic regression analysis, a nomogram risk prediction model was constructed using R software, and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was plotted to evaluate the predictive efficacy of the nomogram prediction model. Result: Among 315 patients with ulcerative colitis, 41 patients presented with mild dysplasia, and 274 patients did not present with mild dysplasia. There were no significant differences in age, body mass index, disease duration, serum albumin, hemoglobin levels, gender, drug treatment status, family history of colorectal cancer, smoking history, drinking history, diabetes, and hypertension between the group with mild dysplasia and the group without mild dysplasia (P > 0.05). There were significant differences in serum procalcitonin level, lesion location, disease activity degree, and the presence of primary sclerosing cholangitis between the group with mild dysplasia and the group without mild dysplasia (P < 0.05). Logistic regression analysis showed that high serum procalcitonin level, lesion site of the entire colon, severe disease activity, and accompanied by primary sclerosing cholangitis were risk factors for mild dysplasia in patients with ulcerative colitis (all OR > 1, all P < 0.05). A nomogram prediction model for patients with ulcerative colitis complicated with mild dysplasia was constructed. The discrimination of the model was verified by the Bootstrap internal validation method, with C-index=0.943, indicating that the model has good discrimination. Draw the standard curve. If the calibration curve is close to the Y-X straight line, it indicates that the model has good accuracy. The ROC curve was drawn to verify the nomogram risk prediction model for mild dysplasia in patients with ulcerative colitis. The AUC was 0.943, and the 95%CI was 0.912-0.974, P < 0.001, indicating that this risk prediction model has good predictive efficacy. Conclusion: The influencing factors of mild dysplasia in patients with ulcerative colitis are serum procalcitonin level, lesion location, disease activity degree, and the presence of primary sclerosing cholangitis. The risk prediction model for mild dysplasia in patients with ulcerative colitis constructed based on the above factors has certain predictive value.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-10-30
  • 最后修改日期:2025-12-03
  • 录用日期:2025-12-27
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