基于机器学习算法预测抗VEGF单抗治疗湿性黄斑变性的临床疗效
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上饶市中心医院

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江西省卫生健康委科技计划青年项目(编号:202511229);


Predicting the Clinical Efficacy of Anti-VEGF Monoclonal Antibody Therapy for Wet Age-Related Macular Degeneration Using Machine Learning Algorithms#
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    摘要:

    目的:探究基于机器学习算法预测血管内皮生长因子(抗VEGF)单抗治疗湿性黄斑变性(AMD)的临床疗效。方法:对128名接受抗VEGF治疗的湿性AMD患者进行回溯性队列分析,采集了人口学特征、基线视力、影像学及生物标志物数据。采用递归特征消除筛选变量,构建并比较了随机森林(RF)、支持向量机等多模型性能,并使用10折交叉验证。结果:RF模型表现最佳,内部验证准确率为85.9%,AUC为0.91,敏感性88.2%,特异性83.7%。关键预测因子包括基线中央视网膜厚度[CRT,(>300μm)]、视网膜下液(SRF)存在、年龄(>70岁)和基线视力(<0.5 logMAR)。外部验证准确率为82.1%,AUC为0.88。SHAP分析显示CRT和SRF对预测贡献最大。结论:该模型可辅助临床定制治疗方案,提升诊疗效率,避免无效治疗资源消耗。

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    Objective: To investigate the clinical efficacy of anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (anti-VEGF) monoclonal antibody therapy for wet age-related macular degeneration (AMD) using machine learning algorithms. Methods: A retrospective cohort analysis was conducted on 128 patients with wet AMD who received anti-VEGF therapy. Demographic characteristics, baseline visual acuity, imaging, and biomarker data were collected. Recursive feature elimination was used to screen variables, and the performance of multiple models, including random forest (RF) and support vector machine (SVM), was constructed and compared using 10-fold cross-validation. Results: The RF model performed best, with an internal validation accuracy of 85.9%, an AUC of 0.91, a sensitivity of 88.2%, and a specificity of 83.7%. Key predictive factors included baseline central retinal thickness [CRT, (>300 μm)], presence of subretinal fluid (SRF), age (>70 years), and baseline visual acuity (<0.5 logMAR). External validation accuracy was 82.1%, with an AUC of 0.88. SHAP analysis showed that CRT and SRF contributed most to the prediction. Conclusion: This model can assist in clinical treatment plan customization, improve diagnostic and therapeutic efficiency, and avoid the waste of ineffective treatment resources.

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胡莹.基于机器学习算法预测抗VEGF单抗治疗湿性黄斑变性的临床疗效[J].四川生理科学杂志,2026,48(1):

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  • 收稿日期:2025-09-10
  • 最后修改日期:2025-09-25
  • 录用日期:2025-09-30
  • 在线发布日期: 2026-01-23
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