影响银屑病患者复发的危险因素分析Nomogram模型的构建
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抚州健强第五医院

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抚州市社会发展指导性科技计划项目(抚科社字(2024)1号40项);


Construction of a Nomogram Model for Analyzing Risk Factors of Relapse in Psoriasis Patients
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    摘要:

    目的:分析影响银屑病患者复发的危险因素,并构建Nomogram模型。方法:纳入2023年1月-2025年1月我院收治的100例银屑病患者临床资料进行回顾性分析,根据患者是否复发分为复发组(n=38)、未复发组(n=62),分析影响银屑病患者复发的危险因素,并据此构建Nomogram模型。结果:两组病程、发作次数、饮酒史、银屑病家族史、体表面积(Body Surface Area,BSA)评分、精神状态异常、不规范用药情况、感染以及环境潮湿情况对比,差异存在统计学意义(P<0.05); 经多因素Logistic回归分析结果显示,病程(OR=2.435,95%CI:2.021~2.934)、发作次数(OR=2.181,95%CI:1.850~2.572)、饮酒史(OR=2.166,95%CI:1.866~2.514)、银屑病家族史(OR=2.095,95%CI:1.819~2.329)、BSA评分(OR=1.820,95%CI:1.559~2.125)、精神状态异常(OR=1.935,95%CI:1.713~2.185)、不规范用药(OR=2.151,95%CI:1.821~2.541)、感染(OR=1.804,95%CI:1.570~2.073)、环境潮湿(OR=1.908,95%CI:1.621~2.245)是影响银屑病患者复发的危险因素(P<0.05);Nomogram模型内部验证一致性指数为0.727,校准曲线与45度参考线重合度较高,ROC曲线下面积(AUC=0.783,95%CI:0.677-0.889),敏感度为81.25%,特异性为67.50%,具有较高的临床预测价值。结论:病程、发作次数、饮酒史、银屑病家族史、BSA评分、精神状态异常、不规范用药、感染、环境潮湿是影响银屑病患者复发的危险因素,基于这些因素构建的Nomogram模型具有较高的临床预测价值,能够为银屑病患者复发风险的评估及临床干预提供参考依据。

    Abstract:

    Objective:To analyze the risk factors influencing the relapse of psoriasis patients and construct a Nomogram model.Methods:A retrospective analysis was conducted on the clinical data of 100 psoriasis patients admitted to our hospital from January 2023 to January 2025. The patients were divided into relapse group (n=38) and non-relapse group (n=62) based on whether they had a relapse. The risk factors for relapse in psoriasis patients were analyzed and a Nomogram model was constructed accordingly.Results:There were statistically significant differences between the two groups in terms of disease duration, number of attacks, history of alcohol consumption, family history of psoriasis, BSA score, abnormal mental state, irregular medication use, infection, and damp environment (P<0.05). The results of multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that disease duration (OR=2.435, 95%CI: 2.021-2.934), number of attacks (OR=2.181, 95%CI: 1.850-2.572), history of alcohol consumption (OR=2.166, 95%CI: 1.866-2.514), family history of psoriasis (OR=2.095, 95%CI: 1.819-2.329), BSA score (OR=1.820, 95%CI: 1.559-2.125), abnormal mental state (OR=1.935, 95%CI: 1.713-2.185), irregular medication use (OR=2.151, 95%CI: 1.821-2.541), infection (OR=1.804, 95%CI: 1.570-2.073), and damp environment (OR=1.908, 95%CI: 1.621-2.245) were risk factors for relapse in psoriasis patients (P<0.05). The internal validation consistency index of the Nomogram model was 0.727, the calibration curve had a high degree of coincidence with the 45-degree reference line, the area under the ROC curve (AUC=0.783, 95%CI: 0.677-0.889), sensitivity was 81.25%, and specificity was 67.50%. The model had a high clinical predictive value.Conclusion:Disease duration, number of attacks, history of alcohol consumption, family history of psoriasis, BSA score, abnormal mental state, irregular medication use, infection, and damp environment are risk factors for relapse in psoriasis patients. The Nomogram model constructed based on these factors has a high clinical predictive value and can provide a reference for assessing the relapse risk of psoriasis patients and guiding clinical interventions.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-08-18
  • 最后修改日期:2025-11-07
  • 录用日期:2025-11-14
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