维持性血液透析患者心血管原因死亡风险相关因素及预测模型构建
DOI:
作者:
作者单位:

安远县人民医院

作者简介:

通讯作者:

中图分类号:

基金项目:

赣州市科技计划项目(编号:GZ2024ZSF660);


Construction of risk factors and prediction model for cardiovascular death in maintenance hemodialysis patients#
Author:
Affiliation:

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 图/表
  • |
  • 访问统计
  • |
  • 参考文献
  • |
  • 相似文献
  • |
  • 引证文献
  • |
  • 资源附件
    摘要:

    目的:通过构建维持性血液透析患者心血管原因死亡风险相关因素及预测模型,为临床早期干预提供指导。方法:选取2022年1月至2024年12月安远县人民医院收治的99例行维持性血液透析患者,收集所有患者的一般资料,所有患者均行血常规检查和常规血清学指标检查,并对所有患者进行3个月随访,根据患者的随访情况将患者分为存活组(n=62)、心血管原因死亡组(n=21)和他因死亡组(n=16)。比较三组患者一般资料和血清学指标,采用多因素logistics回归分析法分析影响患者心血管原因死亡风险的独立影响因素,并基于独立影响因素的分析数据上,建立维持性血液透析患者心血管原因死亡风险预测模型。结果:心血管原因死亡组的年龄、血液透析时间、血钾浓度、甲状旁腺激素、谷草转氨酶水平均高于存活组和他因死亡组,血钙浓度、血磷浓度、血红蛋白、白蛋白、总胆红素水平均低于存活组和他因死亡组(P<0.05)。多因素logistic回归分析结果显示,年龄、血液透析时间、血钙浓度、血钾浓度、血磷浓度、血红蛋白、白蛋白、甲状旁腺激素以及总胆红素均为影响维持性血液透析患者心血管原因死亡发生的相关因素(P<0.05)。ROC曲线结果显示,所构建的模型曲线下面积为0.941(95%CI为0.917~0.966),灵敏度为85.6%,特异度为90.1%,表明该风险预测模型具有较好的预测效果。结论:多因素logistics回归分析显示年龄、血液透析时间、血钙浓度、血红蛋白、白蛋白、甲状旁腺激素和总胆红素水平均为维持性血液透析患者心血管原因死亡风险相关因素,通过相关因素构建的预测模型具有较好的预测效果。

    Abstract:

    Objective: To establish the risk factors and prediction model of cardiovascular death in maintenance hemodialysis patients,so as to provide guidance for early clinical intervention. Methods: Ninety-nine patients with routine maintenance hemodialysis admitted to Anyuan County People"s Hospital from January 2022 to December 2024 were selected. General data of all patients were collected. All patients underwent routine blood examination and routine serological index examination, and all patients were followed up for 3 months. Patients were divided into survival group (n=62), death from cardiovascular causes group (n=21) and death due to death group (n=16). General data and serological indicators of the three groups of patients were compared, and multi-factor logistics regression analysis was used to analyze the independent factors affecting the risk of death from cardiovascular causes of patients. Based on the analysis data of independent factors, a prediction model for the risk of death from cardiovascular causes of patients with maintenance hemodialysis was established. Results: Compared with the survival and non-death groups,the cardiovascular death group had significantly higher age,duration of hemodialysis,and levels of serum potassium,parathyroid hormone,and aspartate aminotransferase (P < 0.05) and significantly lower levels of serum calcium,phosphorus,hemoglobin,albumin,and total bilirubin (P < 0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that age,hemodialysis time,serum calcium concentration,serum potassium concentration,serum phosphorus concentration,hemoglobin,albumin,parathyroid hormone and total bilirubin were all related factors affecting the occurrence of cardiovascular death in maintenance hemodialysis patients (P < 0.05). The results of ROC curve showed that the area under the curve of the constructed model was 0.941 (95%CI: 0.917-0.966),the sensitivity was 85.6%,and the specificity was 90.1%,indicating that the risk prediction model had a good prediction effect. Conclusion: Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that age,hemodialysis time,serum calcium concentration,hemoglobin,albumin,parathyroid hormone and total bilirubin levels were all related factors for cardiovascular death risk in maintenance hemodialysis patients,and the prediction model constructed by related factors had a good predictive effect.

    参考文献
    相似文献
    引证文献
引用本文

谢晓兰.维持性血液透析患者心血管原因死亡风险相关因素及预测模型构建[J].四川生理科学杂志,2025,47(6):

复制
分享
文章指标
  • 点击次数:
  • 下载次数:
  • HTML阅读次数:
  • 引用次数:
历史
  • 收稿日期:2025-04-15
  • 最后修改日期:2025-04-29
  • 录用日期:2025-05-09
  • 在线发布日期: 2025-06-22
  • 出版日期: