Objective: To investigate the efficacy of minimally invasive lumpectomy with transbronchial access for benign thyroid nodules and the risk of postoperative recurrence.Methods:We collected 60 patients who underwent thyroid surgery at our hospital from January 2023 to December 2024 and divided them into a control group (conventional open surgery, n=30) and an experimental group (minimally invasive lumpectomy with transmammary approach, n=30) according to a randomized numerical table method, to investigate the effectiveness of minimally invasive lumpectomy and transmammary approach in the treatment of benign thyroid nodules and to identify key risk factors leading to postoperative recurrence, and to construct a bar graphical prediction model using R-software. Key risk factors for postoperative recurrence were identified and a bar graphical prediction model was built using R-software.Results:There was no significant difference in the comparison of efficacy and relapse rate between the observation and control groups (P > 0.05); the results of multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that nodule size, nodule cystic firmness and surgery type were the determinants of the postoperative recurrence rate of benign thyroid nodules; ROC curve analysis showed that the area under the curve of the constructed bar graph model was 0.686.Conclusion:The efficacy of minimally invasive lumpectomy via the breast cancer approach was comparable to that of conventional open surgery, with no significant difference in postoperative recurrence rate; lump size, cystic firmness and surgery type were factors that influenced the risk of postoperative recurrence, and the bar graph model constructed had a specific reference value in predicting the risk of postoperative recurrence.