老年糖尿病患者发生动脉粥样硬化性心血管病影响因素及预测模型构建
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漯河医学高等专科学校第二附属医院全科医学科 河南 漯河

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Influencing factors and prediction model construction of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in elderly diabetic patientsXiao Beibei1, Cheng Miao2, Ying Xintao2, Li Fengfeng2, Liang Liang2
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    摘要:

    目的:探讨老年糖尿病患者发生动脉粥样硬化性心血管病(ASCVD)影响因素及预测模型构建。方法:回顾性收集2023年2月~2024年10月期间于本院入院治疗的68例糖尿病患者的临床资料。根据患者是否糖尿病合并ASCVD,将患者分为单纯性糖尿病,纳入对照组;糖尿病合并ASCVD,纳入试验组。收集并对比两组的基线资料。采用Logistic回归分析糖尿病合并ASCVD的影响因素,并进行预测模型的构建。结果:68名老年糖尿病患者中,单纯性糖尿病患者有41例,纳入对照组;糖尿病合并ASCVD患者有27例,纳入试验组。两组的平均年龄、饮酒、舒张压、高密度脂蛋白胆固醇(HDL-C)、总胆固醇(TC)、三酰甘油(TG)、蛋白尿方均无显著差异(P>0.05)。两组的性别、吸烟、身体质量指数(BMI)、空腹血糖、糖化血红蛋白、收缩压、低密度脂蛋白胆固醇(LDL-C)、C反应蛋白(CRP)均有显著差异(P<0.05)。通过Logistic回归分析显示女性、吸烟、BMI>24.62 kg/m2、空腹血糖>7.46 mmol/L、糖化血红蛋白>6.83%、收缩压>141.79 mmHg、LDL-C>2.60 mmol/L、CRP>0.17 mg/dl均是影响糖尿病患者发生ASCVD的危险因素(P<0.05)。预测模型构建:Logit(P)=-34.046+1.061×性别+0.951×吸烟+0.226×BMI+0.940×空腹血糖+0.913×糖化血红蛋白+0.022×收缩压+1.180×LDL-C+1.456×CRP。ROC曲线分析结果显示,该预测模型预测糖尿病患者发生ASCVD的AUC为0.935,灵敏度为88.91,特异度为80.52。结论:女性、吸烟者、高BMI、高空腹血糖、高糖化血红蛋白、高收缩压、高LDL-C、高CRP是老年糖尿病患者发生ASCVD的独立危险因素,且以此建立的预测模型灵敏度及特异性较好,可作为临床早期预测老年糖尿病患者发生ASCVD的工具。

    Abstract:

    Objective: To investigate the influencing factors of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) in elderly patients with diabetes mellitus and to establish a predictive model. Methods: The clinical data of 68 patients with diabetes admitted to our hospital from February 2023 to October 2024 were retrospectively collected. According to whether the patients had diabetes combined with ASCVD, the patients were divided into simple diabetes and included in the control group. Diabetes mellitus combined with ASCVD was included in the trial group. Baseline data were collected and compared between the two groups. Logistic regression was used to analyze the influencing factors of diabetes mellitus combined with ASCVD, and the prediction model was constructed. Results: Among 68 elderly patients with diabetes, 41 patients with simple diabetes were included in the control group; Twenty-seven patients with diabetes combined with ASCVD were included in the trial group. There were no significant differences in mean age, alcohol consumption, diastolic blood pressure, high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), total cholesterol (TC), triglyceride (TG) and albuminuria formula between the two groups (P>0.05). There were significant differences in gender, smoking, body mass index (BMI), fasting blood glucose, glycosylated hemoglobin, systolic blood pressure, low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) and C-reactive protein (CRP) between the two groups (P<0.05). Logistic regression analysis showed that female, smoking, BMI>24.62 kg/m2, fasting blood glucose >7.46 mmol/L, glycosylated hemoglobin >6.83%, systolic blood pressure >141.79 mmHg, LDL-C>2.60 mmol/L, CRP>0.17 mg/dl were risk factors for ASCVD in diabetic patients (P<0.05). Prediction model construction: Logit (P) =-34.046+1.061× sex +0.951× smoking +0.226×BMI+0.940× fasting blood glucose +0.913× glycosylated hemoglobin +0.022× systolic blood pressure +1.180×LDL-C+1.456×CRP. ROC curve analysis results showed that the AUC of the predictive model for ASCVD in diabetic patients was 0.935, the sensitivity was 88.91, and the specificity was 80.52. Conclusion: Female, smoker, high BMI, high fasting blood glucose, high A1C, high systolic blood pressure, high LDL-C and high CRP are independent risk factors for ASCVD in elderly patients with diabetes, and the prediction model established by this method has good sensitivity and specificity, and can be used as a tool for early clinical prediction of ASCVD in elderly patients with diabetes.

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肖贝贝.老年糖尿病患者发生动脉粥样硬化性心血管病影响因素及预测模型构建[J].四川生理科学杂志,2025,47(11):

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  • 收稿日期:2025-04-02
  • 最后修改日期:2025-04-09
  • 录用日期:2025-04-13
  • 在线发布日期: 2025-11-18
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